Epidemic affects energy storage industry, battery capacity is expected to decrease by 10% in 2020
Following the tightening of South Korea's supply chain in 2018, China's lithium iron phosphate batteries have once again received attention in the US market. The outbreak of this epidemic may reduce China's battery capacity, which is expected to decrease by 10% in 2020.
Wood Mackenzie said in a research report that the production of lithium-ion batteries in the stationary energy storage and automotive sectors may be affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia (NCP). Analyst Le Xu said in a report that after the tightening of the South Korean supply chain in 2018, China's lithium iron phosphate batteries have once again received attention in the US market. The outbreak of this epidemic may reduce China's battery capacity, which is expected to decrease by 10% in 2020.
Not only that, but considering the previous fire accidents in battery energy storage power stations in South Korea and Arizona, the industry has raised concerns about the safety of lithium batteries and energy storage systems. Some RFPs recently issued by some U.S. utility companies specifically stipulate that in large-scale energy storage system solutions, lithium iron phosphate batteries must be selected over nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries. Although some in the industry believe that the move is overreacting, considering that any type of power electronic system can be dangerous if it is not controlled. In any case, it is undeniable that this requirement in the RFP will undoubtedly further increase the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In order to fully understand the impact of the epidemic situation on the production and operation of various enterprises and institutions in the industry, to provide enterprises with more accurate and effective services, and to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance recently launched the “Energy Storage Alliance 2020 Enterprise Development Survey. From the results of the first-stage enterprise survey, most companies are optimistic about the overall development of the energy storage industry in 2020, and the impact of the epidemic will be temporary.
Specifically, for large enterprises such as state-owned enterprises and listed companies, the impact of the epidemic is mainly on resumption of work and production. For example, factories in areas with severe epidemics may be shut down directly, and delays in employee rework bring uncertainty to the full return to work. However, in general, the impact of the epidemic on the energy storage business of large enterprises is relatively small, on the one hand, because the current energy storage business accounts for a small proportion of the overall business of these large enterprises, on the other hand, the characteristics of the energy storage project itself are generally cyclical Relatively long, companies usually reserve time, and some other companies have overseas factories, which will share part of the production risk. At present, the Energy Storage Alliance has not received any expectations and feedback from companies that the outbreak has directly affected international orders for energy storage.
On the contrary, for small and medium-sized enterprises, the impact of the epidemic is relatively large, mainly reflected in business operations and business development. Affected by the epidemic situation, some signed energy storage projects need to be postponed, resulting in great financial and operating pressure on the enterprise; the original planned first quarter of the business activities for potential users and partners will also be affected. The ability of small and medium-sized enterprises to resist wind is relatively weak. It is expected that the government can give corresponding support in terms of taxation and social security.
In general, compared with more mature industries such as photovoltaics, and transportation, catering, entertainment, tourism, and exhibition industries directly affected by the epidemic, the impact of the energy storage industry is relatively indirect, mainly concentrated in the first quarter and the full year. Limited, it is expected that the overall domestic energy storage market will show a steady upward trend in 2020.
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