Analysis of the Impact of the New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic on Several Industries
February 17, 2020
Jiaotong University published the "Analysis of the Impact of the New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic on Several Industries".
It can be seen that it was written in a hurry. The following are the main points:
Semiconductor industry: Industry production is mostly automated, and the impact is relatively small. Small, mainly focused on the delay in the rework time of employees. Although the rising demand for temperature measurement equipment has driven the demand for chips, the benefit ratio is too small; the overall industry impact is small.
Digital publishing industry: Because its industry business processes can be completed online, the digital publishing industry has been affected by the epidemic, especially in the case of the government's postponement of school and offline training, the digital publishing model is one of the modules of online education Is expected to be positively affected.
Real estate industry: The short-term impact is very obvious, that is, sales are frozen. After the epidemic, first-tier cities are expected to rise in price due to their developed medical standards and resources; in the field of commercial real estate, due to the rise of remote office models, the future is expected Long-term demand is facing a decline.
Tourism industry: In terms of short-term direct impact, the impact of the epidemic on tourism is mainly reflected in the Spring Festival Tourism Golden Week. From the perspective of data, the number of travelers has decreased significantly, a decrease of 63.9%. In the follow-up, small and medium-sized travel agencies are facing business closures and closures; hotels have been suspended from business; scenic spots are unable to generate income; capital market stocks have plummeted; and the industry chain is expected to sustain significant losses.
Energy industry: From the perspective of oil, measures such as road restrictions, traffic outages, and postponed resumption of work are expected to cause oil price declines. At present, international oil prices have entered a downward channel and reached their lowest level in three months on January 28; in terms of electricity Relevant companies are expected to be affected by the delayed resumption of work, and commercial power consumption will also decline.
Automotive industry: Due to the delay in resuming work, it is expected that the efficiency of the automotive and parts supply chain will decline, and some major manufacturers have announced production suspension. In terms of auto sales, the delay in auto shows and promotions is expected to worsen the auto industry's sales in the first quarter. Some major manufacturers are expected to adjust their supply chain models and reduce their proportion in China's supply chain. Car sales are expected to resume after the epidemic, but are not optimistic about the magnitude of the increase.
Human resources service industry: The epidemic has brought the human resources service industry the opportunity to share human resources, that is, flexible dispatch (refer to Hema seconded employees in the catering industry). Luxury industry: The outbreak is expected to reduce luxury consumption by 20% in 2020Q1, and will be reflected in the financial report of the luxury industry in Q1 and Q2 in 2020. The team expects consumption to resume in October 2021. Food industry: The outbreak is expected to force the rise of food e-commerce and new retail, such as Hema Fresh, Tmall Supermarket, Jingdong Supermarket, etc. In terms of catering, the market is expected to recover after the epidemic, and the integration of the upstream catering supply chain is likely to occur in the future.
Information industry: Telecommuting is expected to rise and it is expected to vigorously train IT talents. Old-age care industry: Due to the rigid demand of the old-age care industry, the industry is overloaded during the epidemic phase, and the elderly are vulnerable to infection, making it difficult to care for them. It is expected to increase the industry's operating costs. Medical and health industry: This epidemic will greatly improve the strategic positioning and role of the emergency system for major public health events. It is expected that the linkage mechanism between the medical service system and the major public health system will be strengthened in the future.
Equipment manufacturing industry: Impacts include: production cannot resume normally and affect production progress; products cannot be delivered as originally planned; after-sales services cannot be launched on time and in time; marketing and sales activities are not expected to begin on time. It is expected that in the future, management tools such as remote office, work collaboration and business management and control will be adopted; in the long run, industrial Internet technology will be vigorously developed. Pharmaceutical industry: It is expected that the demand for pharmaceutical-related products such as diagnostic reagents, therapeutic drugs, vaccines, and protective supplies will continue to grow for a long time to come. The epidemic is expected to have an overall stimulating effect on the vaccine market, especially as the vaccination rate for influenza vaccine is expected to further increase. Medical and health informatization industry: After the epidemic is over, it is expected to invest heavily and accelerate the construction of a health big data platform in the medical area; and the rise of remote work will also promote the upgrade of urban network communication infrastructure and cloud service centers, and 5G networks will surely Get accelerated development. Heavy pollution industry: If the epidemic situation cannot be controlled within a short period of time, it is expected that the price of electric fuel such as coal and natural gas will be pushed up, and if the resumption of work continues to be delayed, it is expected that the power consumption of enterprises will be reduced. The epidemic situation may change the balance of supply and demand in thermal coal yards, and local regions may experience tight supply of thermal coal. Management consulting industry: The epidemic is expected to lead to a decline in the demand for management consulting in various industries and a relatively reduced ability to pay. But on the other hand, it will give birth to a new industrial ecology and business logic to promote product innovation in management consulting companies. Social education team: After the epidemic, major educational institutions are bound to increase investment in online products and services. Medical examination industry: Both public and private inspection institutions will be affected in the short term. Among them, private institutions are expected to get involved in the individual inspection industry that was previously dominated by public institutions; public hospitals are expected to focus on large and small, and hand over more low-threshold medical examination services to private enterprises.